Shock poll result in South Brisbane seat
Jackie Trad's tumultuous political career appears as good as over.
A Newspoll survey of Ms Trad's South Brisbane seat, conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail, has revealed that support for the once feared and revered deputy premier has plummeted.
The looming loss of Ms Trad will have significant ramifications for Labor, imperilling Annastacia Palaszczuk's ability to form a majority government after October 31 and potentially forcing the Premier to do a deal with the Greens.
It follows a turbulent term for Ms Trad, once considered the most powerful figure in the Palaszczuk government, after the Crime and Corruption Commission found her failure to declare a property purchase wasn't a crime but should be.
Another Queensland corruption watchdog probe - the announcement of which prompted Ms Trad's ministerial resignation in May - found senior public servants in her thrall perverted proper processes when selecting a principal for a new school in her electorate. Ms Trad was cleared of wrongdoing.
According to the survey of South Brisbane voters, the Labor vote has slumped, the Greens have surged, while support for the LNP remains at similar levels to the 2017 election. Just 32 per cent of voters indicated that they would support Labor, compared with 36 per cent in 2017, while support for the Greens has jumped from 34.4 per cent to 39 per cent.
The LNP primary vote was 24 per cent, while Pauline Hanson's One Nation was on 3 per cent.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the Greens' Amy MacMahon is predicted to comfortably beat Ms Trad 54.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent.
The result is based on strong preference flows from the LNP, which has broken with tradition and will preference the Greens ahead of Labor for the first time.
According to Newspoll, 40 per cent of LNP voters indicated they would preference Labor over the Greens.
However, 37 per cent said they would preference the Greens, while 23 per cent indicated they would follow the LNP's how-to-vote cards.
The result is similar to outcomes in Victoria when Liberal candidates have preferenced the Greens ahead of Labor.
Ms Trad's poor support comes despite Ms Palaszczuk being hugely popular in South Brisbane. The Newspoll of 400 South Brisbane voters found 62 per cent of voters thought Ms Palaszczuk would be the better premier, compared with just 22 per cent for the LNP's Deb Frecklington.
The result is significantly stronger for Ms Palaszczuk than the three other seats recently surveyed - Mansfield in Brisbane's south, the Caboolture and Bribie Island-based electorate of Pumicestone and Mundingburra in Townsville.
However, Ms Palaszczuk has not campaigned in South Brisbane at all during the election or been pictured alongside her controversial former deputy premier and treasurer.
Ms Trad's campaign material is mostly pink rather than the traditional Labor red and does not include images of the Premier.
Ms Palaszczuk remains at loggerheads with Queensland's most influential union boss Gary Bullock after indicating there would be no route back into Cabinet for Ms Trad next term.
Mr Bullock insisted Labor's traditional process of the factions choosing their own ministerial candidates would remain, regardless of the Premier's comments.
It came after an agreement was secretly struck under which Ms Trad would say she would not be "seeking" a return to the ministry.
Labor began the election campaign holding 48 of 93 seats - a two-seat majority.
While Newspoll revealed Ms Palaszczuk would claw back Pumicestone, the seats of Mundingburra and Mansfield were on a knife's edge.
The decline in Labor's vote and the rise of the Greens in South Brisbane will heighten concerns about other inner-city seats, particularly Education Minister Grace Grace's electorate of McConnel. Ms Grace finished second to the LNP on primary votes in 2017 and was only 6.6 per cent ahead of the Greens, meaning a similar swing to the one in South Brisbane would cause another Labor loss.
THE BIG ISSUES IN SOUTH BRISBANE
Troy Rolley, 51
SMALL BUSINESS OWNER, SOUTH BRISBANE
Voting for: Undecided
Biggest issue: "Law and order is becoming a bigger and bigger issue, especially in Brisbane. I'd like to see a stronger police presence and a more visible police presence … I'm positive it's been neglected."
Bec Baker, 51
Small business owner, South Brisbane
Voting for: Undecided
Biggest issue: "Community and small business support - they make up the fabric of the community and it's a way for the community to stay together. There's some businesses that have gone really well through COVID, but then there's other businesses that have struggled."
Dundee Kim, 51
Owner Dundee's Boxing and Fitness, West End
Biggest issue: "It's critical (for) more business support - there's a gap. We need to help small businesses for more growth, opportunity, to employ more people, instead of more regulation."
Louisa Voogt, 23
Paralegal, Highgate Hill
Biggest issue: "Support for young people and mental health. (And) I want to see action and acknowledgment of the fact that there are issues in the environment."
Caitlin Smollett, 23
Student, Highgate Hill
Biggest issue: "The big one is the environment, it's pretty scary and we need someone to do something about it. I'd like to see something done about climate change."
Originally published as Shock poll result in South Brisbane seat