Pauline Hanson's One Nation vote could decide a number of regional seats.
Pauline Hanson's One Nation vote could decide a number of regional seats. Patrick Woods

REGIONAL EXODUS: Voters rushing away from major parties

THE state election will come down to the wire with a new poll showing swings away from major parties in key seats across regional Queensland.

Support for One Nation is surging across the state, with the revitalised party even outpolling the LNP in one Queensland seat.

An exclusive News Corp Galaxy poll in seven of Queensland's most marginal seats has revealed One Nation's vote is climbing across the state - sitting as high as 33 per cent in one seat.

Galaxy is now saying the election outcome is difficult to predict, the result further complicated by a rejection of the major parties in many seats that will ensure the preferences from the minor parties will play a critical role in deciding the outcome.

Galaxy polled more than 500 voters in each of the electorates of Rockhampton, Logan, Glass House, Bonney, Cairns, Hervey Bay and Mundingburra on Wednesday and Thursday.

Labor looks at risk in Mundingburra in Townsville, but more secure in Rockhampton and Cairns. The LNP is under more pressure than initially imagined in Glass House, Bonney and Hervey Bay. But a Galaxy analyst said none of the seats was safe.

One Nation preferences are expected to decide a number of seats across the state - but the poll does not predict the insurgent party will win any of the polled electorates.



In Logan, Galaxy predicts One Nation's Scott Bannan will receive 33 per cent of the primary vote. This is just behind incumbent Labor MP Linus Power on 35 per cent and well ahead of the LNP's Gloria Vicario's 20 per cent.

Galaxy Research analyst David Briggs said if LNP voters preferred Mr Bannan over Mr Linus then Labor could lose the seat.

"This ensures that it will be the preferences of the LNP and other minor parties' voters that determine the outcome in the seat and unless the LNP voters decide to vote tactically to oust Linus Power and install a One Nation candidate in the seat, the sitting member should be returned with a reduced majority," he said.



The poll predicts one quarter of Hervey Bay voters will vote for One Nation's Damian Huxham and incumbent LNP MP Ted Sorensen's primary vote will slip about 10 per cent.

Mr Sorensen is expected to receive 38 per cent of the primary vote, Labor's Adrian Tantary 31 per cent and Mr Huxham 25 per cent. The LNP is predicted to hold onto Hervey Bay despite the swing away.

Mr Briggs said the swing away from the major parties was not enough to oust Mr Sorensen.

"This is insufficient for Damian Huxham to represent a significant threat. His preference flow will then determine the outcome and this is likely to see Ted Sorensen returned with a slightly reduced majority," he said.


Labor is predicted to lose the Townsville-based seat of Mundingburra with massive swings against the two major parties. Four in 10 Mundingburra voters are planning on casting a ballot for a minor party or independent.

The LNP primary vote is expected to slip from 40.6 per cent in 2015 to 30 per cent and Labor's vote to fall from 37.4 per cent at the last election to 29 per cent this year.

Galaxy is predicting One Nation will receive 20 per cent of the vote, Katter's Australian Party 12 per cent and the Greens 6 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis the LNP's Matt Derlagen is predicted to win 52 per cent to incumbent Labor MP Coralee O'Rourke's 47 per cent.

Mr Briggs said because of boundary changes and without the anti-Campbell Newman factor, Ms O'Rourke would struggle to hold the seat.

"In the 2015 election, the anyone but Campbell Newman sentiment resulted in Coralee O'Rourke receiving 76 per cent of the allocated preferences. This will not happen at the forthcoming election as the preference flow from the Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Katter's Australian Party candidates is expected to favour the LNP. Under these circumstances Matthew Derlagen should claim the seat for the LNP," he said.


High profile independents in Cairns and Rockhampton are predicted to split the Labor vote but that will not stop Labor winning the seats.

The polling shows Labor is set to hang on to Rockhampton thanks to preferences from the Greens and independent Margaret Strelow. But there has been a huge swing against the party.

Mr Briggs said Labor's Barry O'Rourke is expected to receive 33 per cent of the primary vote compared to 52.9 per cent in the 2015 election. The LNP's Douglas Rodgers is predicted to receive 23 per cent - a seven percentage point swing away from the party's 2015 result.

"Primary support for Margaret Strelow is currently 14% and her preferences are likely to ensure the final outcome is between Labor and the LNP, with Labor expected to be returned with 58% of the two-party preferred vote," he said.


In Cairns, the poll predicts Labor will hold on despite a seven percentage point swing against the party and a five-percentage point swing against the LNP.

Labor's Michael Healy is predicted to receive 37 per cent of the primary vote, the LNP's Sam Marino 32 per cent, One Nation's Ian Hodge 13 per cent, incumbent independent MP Rob Pyne 11 per cent and the Greens' Aaron McDonald 7 per cent.

"In the poll, primary support for Rob Pyne is just 11% and his preferences are likely to help Michael Healy retain the seat for the Labor Party with 54% on a two-party preferred basis," Mr Briggs said.


Galaxy predicts the Sunshine Coast-based seat of Glass House remains on a knife's edge after a 10 percentage point swing against LNP incumbent Andrew Powell.

The poll predicts a 50-50 two-party preferred result but Mr Powell is leading the primary vote on 33 per cent.

Labor's Brent Hampstead trails on 27 per cent, followed by One Nation's Tracey Bell-Henselin on 22 per cent and the Greens' Sue Webet with 16 per cent of the vote.

Mr Briggs said although Ms Bell-Henselin was unlikely to win the seat, her votes could decide who did.

"Even if Tracy Bell-Henselin was able to jump ahead of Labor and finish second on 25 November the preference flow from Labor's Brent Hampstead would ensure Andrew Powell was returned. Tracy Bell-Henselin can still affect the outcome, however, as her preferences will no doubt determine the winner in the seat," he said.  


Galaxy is also predicting Bonney, a new seat on the Gold Coast, will come down to the wire with a 50-50 two-party preferred result.

LNP's Sam O'Connor is leading in the primary vote with 45 per cent, ahead of Labor's Rowan Holzberger on 39 per cent and the Greens' Avin Javanmard on 9 per cent.

Mr Briggs said despite Mr Holzberger trailing, preferences will make the seat one to watch.

"However, with no One Nation candidate, the Greens will finish third in the seat and a strong preference flow from Greens candidate Amin Javanmard will ensure a close result," he said. -NewsRegional

News Corp Australia

Philip’s unconventional royal romance

Premium Content Philip’s unconventional royal romance

Prince Philip’s rather unconventional romance blossomed into love

Philip’s deep bond with Australia

Premium Content Philip’s deep bond with Australia

Prince Philip visited Australia an astonishing 35 times.

Traffic diverted after girl trapped in highway crash

Premium Content Traffic diverted after girl trapped in highway crash

A teenage girl was trapped in wreckage following a Warrego Hwy crash