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Markets still reacting to Chinese rate cut

Share Markets:

Mainland European markets were firm overnight as German business sentiment improved and despite suggestions from a senior ECB official that the ECB's proposal to purchase European government bonds might face serious legal challenges.

The German Dax and the French CAC 40 both rose 0.4% while in the UK, the FTSE 100 fell 0.3%. In the US, the Dow and the S&P500 touched new record highs although both were only marginally positive on the day.

The newly listed Medibank Private begins trading on the ASX at noon today.

The sale of Medibank Private raised $5.68 billion for the Federal government.

Interest Rates:

Both long and short rates were little moved overnight. German long bonds rose 1 basis point to 0.78% while those in the US were steady at 2.30%.

In Australia, 10 year government bond yields are sitting at 3.25%, 1 basis point down on the previous day.

Foreign Exchange:

The AUD eased back against the USD, yen, the euro and the NZD overnight as iron ore prices remained weak and the exuberance following China's rate cut faded.

Commodities:

Oil prices fell overnight in the run up to an OPEC meeting later this week.

Unless production is cut, oil traders fear oil prices will continue to decline.

Copper fell as traders remain concerned about the pace of growth in China while the price of gold held broadly steady after some solid rises in mid-November.

Australia:

No data released.

China:

No significant data released. Markets are still coming to terms with the implications of China's recent reduction of its official interest rates.

Europe:

ECB members Weidmann and Nowotny counselled caution against rushing into QE in separate talks given overnight.

Weidmann remains concerned about legal issues while Nowotny is concerned about the implications for banking stability in Eastern Europe.

Germany's Ifo survey rose in November.

The rise in the headline Business Climate Indicator (BCI), from 103.2 to 104.7, was better than the consensus forecast of a dip to 103.0 and came as a welcome surprise after the sharp fall in the German composite PMI in the same month.

It was the first increase in the Ifo survey in seven months.

New Zealand:

New Zealand's annual migration rose to a fresh record for the third consecutive month in October, led by an increase in student arrivals from India and fewer Kiwis crossing the Tasman to Australia.

New Zealand gained a net 47,684 migrants in the year ended 31 October, the largest ever gain, according to Statistics New Zealand. Annual arrivals rose 16% from the previous year to a new high of 107,200, while departures fell 20% to 59,500. The annual net loss to Australia was 5,300 people, the smallest loss in twenty years.

United Kingdom:

No significant data released.

United States:

The U.S. Markit flash services PMI fell to 56.3 in November versus October's 57.1 and September's 58.9. The index hit an all-time high of 61.0 in June of this year. This is a fifth straight month that service sector activity has slowed.

However, employment growth continued and suggests increased optimism toward the business outlook.

The U.S. Chicago national activity index fell to 0.14 in October after rebounding to 0.29 in September and a drop to -0.46 in August. A positive index reflects above-trend growth.

U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index was steady at 10.5 in November, identical to the October outcome and little different from September's 10.8. It also matches the 6-month average for this index.


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