East Coast Low II - what to expect

JUST two weeks after massive storms bashed the Queensland and New South Wales coastlines, causing massive damage, it looks as though we're set to cop it again. 

However thus far it looks as though East Coast Low II won't be as bad as its predecessor. 

Here's why: if you look at the picture above you'll see the rainfall that is being predicted will be at its heaviest and most widespread around 4pm this Sunday. 

And then on the picture below - as you can see - the low and the rain associated with it are expected to go out to sea by 10pm that night. 

 

BOM forecast for Sunday June 19 at 10pm as at 7pm on Thursday June 16
BOM forecast for Sunday June 19 at 10pm as at 7pm on Thursday June 16

The rainfall the BOM is presently predicting is not as heavy and the low isn't expected to stay over land as long.

If we compare that to the picture below which was the BOM's forecast for the East Coast Low that hit us on June 4-5 you can see the rainfall predictions at this point aren't as heavy. 

Presently the Bureau's maps are tipping between 10-20mm for basically the entire eastern seaboard in the six hours between 4-10pm on Sunday. 

Those same maps were tipping 50-100mm to smash the Sunshine and Fraser Coasts two weeks ago. 

 

The BOM's forecast for Saturday June 4 at 10am as at Thursday June 2
The BOM's forecast for Saturday June 4 at 10am as at Thursday June 2

 

And therein lies the devilish detail. 

While two weeks ago we were expecting the Sunshine Coast and south-east Queensland to bear the brunt of the storm's fury it was Sydney and the NSW coastline which took the biggest hit. 

That's nature - it's unpredictable.

Presently the BOM has issued a flood watch for several rivers in southern Queensland. 

"Moderate to heavy rainfall will move east across southern and central Queensland from late Friday and during Saturday," a release sent out by the BOM this afternoon read. 

"Widespread rainfall totals of 50-80 mm are expected during the event, with isolated totals in excess of 100 mm possible. The rainfall will continue eastwards and move off the southeast coast late on Sunday."

At present the BOM's maps show the rainfall band extending itself over the Queensland interior throughout Saturday and into the early hours of Sunday, with the map below showing moderate falls at 7pm. 

 

Bureau of Meterology forecast for 7pm on Saturday June 18 as at Thursday June 16.
Bureau of Meterology forecast for 7pm on Saturday June 18 as at Thursday June 16.

 

As such the BOM has said river level rises above the minor flood level are possible in some areas.

"Heavy rainfall may also lead to localised flash flooding, a BOM release stated this afternoon.

"Catchments at risk within the Flood Watch area include the Georgina and Diamantina Rivers, Cooper Creek, Bulloo, Paroo, Warrego, Balonne, Moonie and Border Rivers."


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