Hayes: Slipper trio are over the odds
DAVID Hayes only has to look back to the Australian Cup to know the betting market can get it wrong and he thinks that's the case again with his three runners in the Golden Slipper Stakes.
"I couldn't believe Harlem was $51 on the back of one bad run and that's what I'm thinking going into the Golden Slipper that my three horses are all over the odds," Hayes said.
The three horses, the Hayes/Hayes and Dabernig team has in the Golden Slipper are Enbihaar, Long Leaf and the first emergency Qafila.
Enbihaar firmed from $51 to $41 on Wednesday with Ladbrokes, while Long Leaf is $81 and Qalifa is $101.
Hayes is also predicting the winner of the Golden Slipper is likely to start from an outside barrier and that's what his trio will be doing. Long Leaf has drawn barrier 19, Enbihaar barrier 15 and Qafila is in barrier 10.
"I think it could be like the year I had Von Costa De Hero finish second in a photo," Hayes said.
"It was a heavy track, he drew the outside barrier and went back and stormed home.
"I've got a feeling the speed horses will struggle in the closing stages on a heavy track and the winner will be a horse coming down the outside late."
Hayes, who has trained one Golden Slipper winner and five second placings, said Enbihaar boasted strong formlines for the $3.5m sprint which didn't correlate with her price.
He pointed out that two starts ago Enbihaar defeated Seabrook, who then won her next start in Sydney, and is a $9 chance.
"Mick Price's filly Seabrook was unlucky behind her," he said.
"Then Enbihaar finished second to Written By in the Blue Diamond Stakes coming from a mile back and he's close to favourite in the race, and also has won again.
"She'll be ridden quietly as there's lots of speed in the race. She was ridden in that fashion in the Blue Diamond and flew home."
Hayes has put blinkers on Enbihaar so that she can settle closer in the run.
Hayes also said punters should forgive Long Leaf's last-start 12th in the Blue Diamond.
"He was a bit scrappy at the start, he got knocked down so it was a forgive run," he said. "He was undefeated before that and he's at huge odds. He's also won on a slow track and he's got blinkers on first time."
Hayes's other potential starter is Qafila who finished fourth at her last start in the Black Opal Stakes. "She would have won in another two strides in that race and she was wasn't suited by slow tempo and bad barrier. if she gets in she'll run a big race," he said.