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CYCLONE FORECAST: Model shows low in Coral Sea

Mackay Weather Chasers has released a long-range model that shows a cyclone forming in the Coral Sea in late January early February.
Mackay Weather Chasers has released a long-range model that shows a cyclone forming in the Coral Sea in late January early February. Campbell Gellie

A SOCIAL media weather forecaster has sent out a pointed reminder to Mackay residents to be 'Cyclone Ready', revealing a computer model that shows a Severe Tropical Cyclone forming in the Coral Sea.

The "long-range" computer model carried out and shared by Mackay Weather Chasers has the cyclone forming during late January and early February.

On the chasers' Facebook page the post said there was "no cause for concern at this moment, it is a timely reminder for all residents along the coast to ensure they are 'Cyclone Ready' as we enter peak season'."

This reminder comes as many Proserpine residents, who were hit by Cyclone Debbie on March 28, are still waiting for their homes to be repaired.

Bureau of Meteorology Michael Knepp said the model for late January and early February was too far into the future to be reliable.

However, he did say climatology showed the probability of a cyclone was increasing into late January and peaking sometime in March, which it does every year.

He said there were many models to choose from and some could show a cyclone forming while others might not.

Mr Knepp said if a lot of them were it would the probability of one forming would be higher.

"That far ahead there is way too many variables. It is just not reliable that far ahead," he said.

Topics:  cyclone news editors picks mackay mackay news mackay weather mackay weather chasers news mackay severe tropical cyclone tropical cyclone


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